Case studies

Before the move.
After the move.

Setups before they moved. Charts after they resolved.

11 Resolved examples
Before / After Original + resolved
SPX, NQ, ES, SMH Multi-market coverage
SPX August 2024

Projected the August low as the completion of a higher-degree correction.

+1,000 pts

Thesis — A completed WXY correction into the common retracement and extension confluence zone would set up the next impulsive leg higher.

Invalidation — A decisive break through the projected support zone would weaken the bullish continuation count.

Target — Transition from Wave [W4] completion into a multi-month [W5] advance.

Result — The August low held and price rallied roughly 1,000 points from the projected turn area.

Shows how multi-timeframe confluence was used to turn a volatile correction into a structured long thesis.

SPX WXY bottom setup before the move Before
SPX WXY bottom setup after the move resolved After
NQ October 2024

Used a bearish corrective bounce to frame the next downside leg.

-400 pts

Thesis — An impulse decline followed by a WXY corrective bounce would resolve lower once the bounce finished.

Invalidation — A structural break above the corrective zone would weaken the downside continuation call.

Target — Push into the measured downside extensions once the correction completed.

Result — The corrective bounce failed where expected and the lower target zone was reached.

This is a good example of the framework handling both impulse structure and the trap of a countertrend bounce.

NQ bearish corrective bounce setup before resolution Before
NQ bearish corrective bounce setup after resolution After
ES January 2024

Turned a trendline break into a clean measured-move setup.

+50 pts

Thesis — A valid 0 / B trendline break would confirm the corrective structure and support a push into the common retracement zone.

Invalidation — Failure to maintain the break would weaken the measured-move target.

Target — Move into the 50 to 61.8 percent retracement area with wave-equality confluence.

Result — Price respected the trendline logic and advanced into the projected zone.

The setup shows how a simple execution trigger can sit on top of a broader Elliott Wave structure.

ES 0/B trendline setup before the move Before
ES 0/B trendline setup after the move After
SPX December 2024

Used a trendline confirmation to validate continuation into the next leg.

Trendline held

Thesis — Maintaining the 2 / 4 trendline structure would keep the impulse intact and support higher continuation.

Invalidation — A failed trendline structure would signal the count needed to be reconsidered.

Target — Continuation into the next projected leg once the structure confirmed.

Result — The trendline signal held and the market followed through in the expected direction.

This is an execution-focused example where the pattern confirmation mattered as much as the label.

SPX 2/4 trendline setup before the move Before
SPX 2/4 trendline setup after the move After
SPX August 2024

Forecasted a 450-point W4 decline and 1,000-point W5 rally with precision.

+1,000 pts

Thesis — In July 2024, SPX completed a [W3] top. The projection called for a 450-point 3-wave decline for [W4], followed by a 1,000-point rally in [W5].

Invalidation — Failure of the [W4] zone to hold would have invalidated the bullish continuation structure.

Target — [W4] completion followed by a terminal [W5] rally.

Result — The August low marked the exact bottom of [W4] before launching into the final leg. Structure, levels, timing, and targets all aligned.

Shows the power of combining higher-degree wave analysis with Fibonacci symmetry for multi-month projections.

SPX 4th and 5th wave into WXY setup before the move Before
SPX 4th and 5th wave into WXY setup after the move After
SPX July 2024

Used a 5-wave decline to project the corrective rally and continuation lower.

Measured move reached

Thesis — SPX completed a 5-wave decline, then rallied to the 50% retracement forming a 2nd or B-wave. The 50% level offered A=C equality confluence.

Invalidation — A break above the corrective zone would weaken the measured-move target.

Target — Continuation lower toward the measured move equal to the initial 5-wave decline.

Result — The measured-move target was successfully reached.

Demonstrates how impulse completions set up high-probability corrective targets.

SPX 5-wave decline into ABC setup before resolution Before
SPX 5-wave decline into ABC setup after resolution After
SMH January 2024

Projected a 5th wave extension target after a clean 4th wave retracement.

Target zone reached

Thesis — SMH retraced 30-38.2% of the fractal 3rd wave with a 3-wave structure for a potential 4th. With the 1st wave extended, the 5th should be shorter than the 3rd, targeting the 50-61.8% extensions.

Invalidation — A break below the W4 zone would invalidate the impulsive count.

Target — 50-61.8% extensions for the fractal 5th wave.

Result — Price rallied immediately and precisely into the projected target zone.

Clean example of using wave proportionality to set 5th wave targets.

SMH W4 and W5 setup before the rally Before
SMH W4 and W5 setup after the rally After
SPX May 2024

Confirmed a bearish WXY structure for a 60-90 point projected decline.

60-90 pts lower

Thesis — A 3-wave move down was followed by a bearish WXY correction to the 61.8-78.6% retracements. After retracing 50% of the internal X-wave, the WXY was confirmed.

Invalidation — A break above the corrective structure would negate the bearish WXY.

Target — Measured targets projected a 60-90 point decline with a cross of the prior low.

Result — Price reached both the projected zone and lower support precisely as forecasted.

Shows how internal wave confirmation adds confidence to the directional thesis.

SPX bearish WXY setup before resolution Before
SPX bearish WXY setup after resolution After
SPX May 2024

Identified a triangle continuation pattern for a 60-point rally into extensions.

+60 pts

Thesis — SPX was forming a triangle within a higher-degree wave, offering a bullish bias. Price traced an A-B-C-D-E triangle validated by holding the A-wave low.

Invalidation — A break of the A-wave low would invalidate the triangle structure.

Target — Rally into the 61.8% extension of the prior impulse wave.

Result — Price rallied 60 points directly into the target zone. The triangle was later re-labeled as a W4, which would have raised upside targets further.

Even with a minor labeling adjustment, the framework still produced a clean, tradeable outcome.

SPX triangle continuation setup before the rally Before
SPX triangle continuation setup after the rally After
SPX August 2024

Projected rejection from a confluence zone to confirm the completion of the corrective rally.

Rejection confirmed

Thesis — Rejection was expected from the 50-61.8% retracement zone, aligned with 90-100% A-wave extensions and the lower boundary of the corrective parallel channel.

Invalidation — A sustained break above the retracement zone would invalidate the bearish thesis.

Target — Move toward the lower channel boundary aligned with the broader corrective rally.

Result — The move played out exactly as projected.

Demonstrates multi-layer confluence for higher-conviction setups.

SPX 3-wave corrective rejection setup before the move Before
SPX 3-wave corrective rejection setup after the move After
NQ October 2024

Defined the W4 support zone and projected the W5 rally to 6,150+.

6,150+ reached

Thesis — Price would complete a correction into the [W4] support zone and respect the 0.382 retracement without violating invalidation, then begin [W5].

Invalidation — A break below the [W4] support zone would invalidate the impulsive sequence.

Target — Primary upside target of 6,150 based on the 61.8% extension of Waves 1 and 3.

Result — [W4] completed within the target zone. [W5] reached and slightly exceeded the 6,150+ extension with impulse structure intact from the 2022 low.

Highlights how a properly defined W4 correction provides high-conviction setups for terminal 5th wave rallies.

NQ W4 completion into W5 rally setup before the move Before
NQ W4 completion into W5 rally setup after the move After

See the framework, then join the process live.

The membership applies this same process to current markets daily.